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Stacked conformal prediction

Author: Paulo C. Marques F.
Published in: Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, Volume 266, Pages 305-316 (2025)

Citation (BibTeX)

@InProceedings{marquesf2025,
  title = {Stacked conformal prediction},
  author = {Paulo C. {Marques F.}},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications},
  pages = {305--316},
  year = {2025},
  editor = {Nguyen, Khuong An and Luo, Zhiyuan and Papadopoulos, Harris and L{\"o}fstr{\"o}m, Tuve and Carlsson, Lars and Bostr{\"o}m, Henrik},
  volume = {266},
  series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
  month = {September},
  publisher = {PMLR},
  url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v266/marques25a.html}
}
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Abstract

We consider the conformalization of a stacked ensemble of predictive models, showing that the potentially simple form of the meta-learner at the top of the stack enables a procedure with manageable computational cost that achieves approximate marginal validity without requiring the use of a separate calibration sample. Empirical results indicate that the method compares favorably to a standard inductive alternative.